Despite Growing Challenges 1.5°C Climate Target Still within Reach
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Every fraction of a degree counts in the fight against climate change, yet, from 2020 to 2023, carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise despite advances in clean energy technology. Without stronger climate policies, the critical 1.5°C target—the threshold that scientists warn could trigger severe and irreversible impacts—now faces a risk of being overshot, according to a new study involving researchers from Khalifa University.
Emphasizing on managing peak temperatures rather than abandoning climate objectives, the study focuses on minimizing overshoot. Unlike traditional cost-effective models, the research introduces scenarios that consider various real-world constraints, including institutional, technological, and geophysical factors for a more realistic picture of limiting global warming. Utilizing eight different global models, 20 scenarios feature realistic temperature targets, managing CO2 emission, and the balance between technological possibilities and implementation challenges.
The research was in a paper titled, ‘Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints’ in Nature Climate Change, a top 1% journal.
The team of researchers include Khalifa University’s Dr. Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo, Assistant Professor, Management Science & Engineering, as well as researchers from the University of Maryland, US, the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Austria, and institutions from Italy, Germany, Brazil and The Netherlands.
The rise in global temperatures is expected to peak around the same time carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions hit net-zero – as we reduce emissions to zero – temperatures will also reach their highest point. Scientists now find the most ambitious efforts could maintain peak warming just below 1.6°C, but the odds drop to as low as 5%, if current global policies on climate change remain unaddressed.
“Without stronger climate policies, the critical 1.5°C target—the threshold that could trigger severe and irreversible impacts due to global warming—looks even more distant.”
— , Assistant Professor, Management Science & Engineering, KU
A key finding is that along with technological advancements, reducing energy demand – in regions with high energy consumption – can ease the pressure on other mitigation efforts for preventing an overshoot of the 1.5°C limit and for lowering temperatures after an overshoot occurs. If global temperatures do exceed the 1.5°C limit, the study suggests it will require removing a vast amount of CO2—hundreds of gigatons—for every 0.1°C increase to reduce temperatures.
Dr. Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo said: “The 1.5°C target remains achievable, however it requires urgent and coordinated action. Rapid technological advancements and increased deployment of clean energy, although crucial, especially for lowering temperatures after an overshoot, are still not sufficient on their own. The most significant barriers to achieving ambitious climate goals are the effectiveness of implementing, and enforcing climate-friendly policies.
He added: “Our model intercomparison study establishes a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design. By recognizing the limitations of focusing only on cost, we aim to bridge the gap between economically driven models and real-world implementation challenges, resulting in a more grounded understanding of climate mitigation possibilities.”
Alisha Roy
Science Writer
10 Oct 2024
