By investing in low-carbon fuels and technological innovation, the maritime industry can steer towards a greener horizon
Uncover the future of sustainable shipping—listen now!
International shipping is a significant yet often overlooked contributor to global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Responsible for about 1.0 gigatonnes of CO2 annually — roughly 2.8 percent of global emissions — the shipping industry faces mounting pressure to decarbonize.
Khalifa University’s Dr. Pedro Rochedo was part of an international team exploring how this sector can slash emissions by 2050, revealing both promising pathways and formidable challenges. The research team showed that climate mitigation strategies have the potential to reduce emissions by up to 86 percent, primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels.
Their results were published in, a top 1% journal.
International shipping plays a crucial role in global trade, but its reliance on fossil fuels has significant environmental repercussions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) set ambitious targets in 2018 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from shipping by at least 50 percent by 2050, compared to 2008. The research team’s results align with this goal, but the IMO’s revised target of net-zero life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 remains more ambitious still.
The research team used integrated assessment models, which simulate different scenarios to assess the impact of various decarbonization strategies on international shipping. Of the three scenarios developed, one projected emissions to stabilize or even rise due to increased shipping activity and limited efficiency gains, but two showed significant emission reductions, facilitated by adopting low-carbon fuels and technological advancements.
The study ǿմý several low-carbon fuels that could replace conventional fossil-based maritime fuels, including biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia. These alternatives are essential for achieving deep decarbonization, but their widespread adoption requires significant investment in new ship engines and global bunkering infrastructure.
“Transitioning to low-carbon fuels is not without challenges,” Dr. Rochedo explains. “The long lifespan of ships and the low average age of existing vessels imply substantial technological inertia. The current fleet’s reliance on compression ignition engines makes it difficult to adopt new fuel types without extensive retrofitting, and developing a global network for low-carbon fuel distribution is complex and costly.”
The study’s findings offer optimism for a future with dramatically reduced greenhouse gas emissions from the international shipping sector, but to achieve the revised goals of net-zero emissions will require advancements in fuel technologies and integrating carbon capture and removal strategies. Early investment in low-carbon fuels, new motor technologies, and infrastructure will be crucial.
Decarbonizing international shipping is an integral part of the broader effort to combat climate change. Continuous improvement in integrated assessment models and a deeper understanding of the shipping sector’s dynamics will support effective policymaking and help navigate the maritime industry towards a more sustainable future.
Jade Sterling
Science Writer
