星空传媒

Mathematical Approach Developed to Help Address the Epidemic听

A team of Khalifa University researchers has developed a mathematical model to analyze the prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the UAE which projects that by 2031, approximately 1.6 million residents could be living with the disease.听

The fractional-order mathematical model by Prof. Mokhtar Kirane and PhD student Sofwah Ahmed was in Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences journal.

Key insights of the study highlighted how various factors鈥攕uch as poor lifestyle choices, demographic shifts, and limited healthcare access鈥攁re driving this sharp increase in diabetes cases.听

Prof. Kirane said: 鈥淭he research employs a new mathematical approach known as fractional calculus to model the spread of diabetes. Unlike traditional models, which use integer-based differential equations, fractional calculus offers a more refined analysis, capturing the complex dynamics of disease progression. This advanced technique helps predict not only the number of future diabetes cases but also the associated complications.鈥澨�

He added: 鈥淭he model is more adequate to represent real-world scenarios, providing more accurate predictions about future diabetes trends. Understanding the future healthcare demand is vital for policymakers. Our model can guide decisions on resource allocation and healthcare planning to better manage the epidemic.鈥�

The study estimates that diabetes-related healthcare costs could reach US$3.4 billion (AED12.5 billion) by 2031 if the current trends continue. This projection takes account of both diagnosed and undiagnosed cases, with around 64% of UAE adults with diabetes unaware of their condition. As untreated diabetes often leads to severe health complications, the actual cost could be even higher.

Alisha Roy

Science Writer

6 November 2024